What Minnesota's early voting surge does and doesn't mean yet

MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - Minnesota is seeing a sharp rise in early voting, and the trend may give clues as to the final vote, but it’s not at all definitive.

Minnesota early voting keeps climbing

A line of voters waited to enter the Hennepin County Elections Office Thursday as early voting kept the site busy. Secretary of State Steve Simon said the increase is showing up across most of the state.

"As of the end of last week, we were at about 48% higher for early vote than we were at the same point four years ago," said Simon.

About 420,000 people had already cast ballots by Oct. 23, with especially high numbers in the Twin Cities Metro.

Local perspective:

New statewide numbers come out Friday, Oct. 30, but some localities are getting updates in the interim and Minneapolis surpassed its record number of votes cast in a midterm election.

By the numbers:

Early voting is trending higher in a lot of states, not just Minnesota. Simon said that does not automatically mean overall turnout will end up higher.

"It's too early to say that this means overall bigger turnout. But I can say that there's been a clear direction in favor of early voting," said Simon.

What the numbers may show

Minnesota does not break down its voting data by party, so the state's early vote totals do not show which party has cast more ballots. Still, David Schultz, a Hamline University political science professor, said the broader data offers some clues.

Big picture view:

In the 27 states that do break down early voting by party, Democrats make up 45% of early voters and Republicans make up 31%, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

"The indications are that the early voting is showing that Democrats are more excited, more enthused about voting, and national trends are saying the same thing at this point," said Schultz.

What's next:

Schultz said the early vote still does not settle the bigger question because many Republican voters tend to wait.

"Republicans are more likely to vote on election day," said Schultz.

A Pew Research survey after the 2024 election showed Republicans had a 12% advantage among voters who cast ballots on Election Day.

The Source: FOX 9 reporting from Corin Hoggard, with interviews from Steve Simon and David Schultz plus data from the University of Florida Election Lab and a Pew Research survey after the 2024 election.